A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
